Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply (Soft 155D Split)#
Definition#
Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply measures the BTC inventory assigned to the mature-holder side of the STH/LTH age split.
Each coin receives a long-term holder weight based on its age. Coins well above the 155-day maturity area receive high LTH weight; coins well below it receive little or no LTH weight.
Values are denominated in BTC. The soft boundary assigns partial cohort weights near the 155-day area, reducing mechanical jumps when coins approach the maturity threshold.
Known holder identity is outside the measurement. The classification comes from coin age, measured by time since last on-chain movement.
Interpretation#
Rising LTH Supply means more BTC has aged into the mature-holder side of the distribution. Existing coins gain LTH weight as they remain unspent through the 155-day maturity area.
Falling LTH Supply means mature-weighted coins have moved on-chain and reset age. The decline can occur without any change in circulating supply because the affected BTC remains in the UTXO set with a younger age profile.
A larger LTH inventory points to lower recent turnover across a greater share of supply. A smaller LTH inventory points to heavier movement from coins that had already accumulated age.
The direction of LTH Supply separates coin maturation from renewed spending. It does not identify whether moved coins were sold, transferred internally, or reorganized by a custodian.
Reading the Series#
During accumulation-heavy regimes, LTH Supply can rise as fewer coins move and recent supply ages past the maturity area. The line often climbs when dormant inventory builds faster than mature coins are spent.
During distribution phases, older coins move and lose LTH weight as newer holders receive supply that had already aged into the mature cohort. The same movement can transfer coin age from the LTH side of the split into the STH side.
After long quiet periods, a sharp LTH Supply decline marks renewed spending from older coin inventory. The same event can raise STH Supply (Soft) because spent UTXOs re-enter the recent-holder side of the split.
Flat LTH Supply does not mean there is no market activity. It means newly maturing supply and mature coins resetting age are roughly offset inside the cohort accounting.
Relationship to Other Metrics#
STH Supply (Soft) measures the recent-holder inventory created by the same age-weighting model. LTH Supply gains BTC weight when coins age into the mature side; STH Supply gains BTC weight when coins have moved recently.
LTH/STH Supply Ratio (Soft) reports the relative balance between mature and recent supply. The direct LTH Supply line preserves the absolute BTC amount assigned to the mature-holder cohort.
LTH Realized Price attaches a cost basis to the mature-holder cohort. LTH Supply measures how much BTC sits in that cohort, while LTH Realized Price measures the average acquisition price carried by it.
Supply in Profit and Supply in Loss classify coins by current price relative to their on-chain cost basis. LTH Supply classifies coins by age since last movement, so mature coins can be either in profit or in loss.
Supply Last Active 6M-12M, Supply Last Active 1Y-2Y, and older age-band series split mature inventory into narrower age ranges. LTH Supply aggregates the mature side of the holder split around the 155-day threshold.
Methodology Note#
The 155-day split comes from coin age, measured by time since last on-chain movement. The soft model treats the boundary as a transition zone around that age.
A hard boundary can move coins from full STH status to full LTH status in one daily step. The soft version assigns gradual weights near the threshold, reducing artifacts caused by coins crossing the cutoff.
Large custody transfers can reduce LTH Supply without confirmed economic distribution. The age reset still enters the cohort accounting because the UTXO was spent on-chain.
The same transaction can represent a sale, self-custody movement, exchange maintenance, consolidation, or change output. LTH Supply records the loss of mature coin age, not the off-chain intent behind the spend.
Historical Background#
The short-term and long-term holder distinction became common in Bitcoin on-chain analysis through empirical work on UTXO age and spending probability. Younger coins tend to move more often than older coins, and the spending probability curve flattens after roughly five months.
The 155-day boundary became a practical cohort threshold for separating recently moved supply from mature supply. Later implementations introduced soft cohort weighting to reduce discontinuities around the cutoff.
LTH Supply belongs to the cohort family that includes STH Supply, LTH Realized Price, STH Realized Price, and the LTH/STH Supply Ratio.