Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Price (Soft 155D Split)#

View Short-Term Realized Price (Soft) chartArticle updated: June 22, 2026

Definition#

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Price estimates the weighted average USD cost basis assigned to recent-holder supply. CoreCharts uses a soft 155-day split, where each coin receives a gradual STH weight as it approaches the short-term/long-term holder boundary.

STH Realized Price = \frac{\sum_{i} {value}_{i} \cdot {last moved price}_{i} \cdot w_{i}^{S T H}}{\sum_{i} {value}_{i} \cdot w_{i}^{S T H}}

(1)

The result is denominated in USD. A coin with full STH weight contributes fully to the recent-holder cost basis, while a coin near the 155-day boundary contributes only partially.

The series is based on coin age and last on-chain movement. Exchange reshuffling, custody movements, batching, and change outputs can reset coin age and realized price without proving a new economic buyer.

Interpretation#

Rising STH Realized Price means recent-holder cost basis is moving higher as coins last moved at higher USD prices. This usually occurs when newer supply changes hands during advancing markets or after prolonged trading above the prior recent-holder basis.

Falling STH Realized Price means recent supply is being repriced lower. During selloffs, spent coins can enter the recent-holder cohort with a lower last-moved price, pulling the weighted cost basis down.

A flat reading may hide offsetting flows inside the weighted average. Higher-priced recent coins and lower-priced recent coins can offset each other even while the underlying cohort turns over.

BTC Price above STH Realized Price places the aggregate recent-holder cohort above break-even. BTC Price below STH Realized Price places that cohort below break-even, where recent-holder supply carries unrealized losses on average.

Reading the Series#

STH Realized Price tends to rise fastest when coins repeatedly move at higher prices and remain inside the recent-holder age band. In that regime, the recent-holder cost basis follows new market clearing levels upward.

After sharp declines, the line can fall as coins move at lower prices and receive STH weight. The drop does not require every recent holder to sell; enough lower-price on-chain movement can pull the weighted average down.

The distance between BTC Price and STH Realized Price marks the aggregate unrealized profit or loss of the recent-holder cohort. Because both series are USD price references, Sync mode keeps that break-even relationship visually comparable across zoom ranges.

Short-lived crosses can occur around volatile trading ranges. A sustained period below STH Realized Price means recent supply remains underwater after multiple daily closes, which differs from a single intraday break.

Relationship to Other Metrics#

LTH Realized Price estimates the weighted average cost basis of long-term holder supply. Comparing it with STH Realized Price separates older holder basis from recent-holder basis, especially after large distribution or accumulation phases.

STH MVRV divides BTC Price by STH Realized Price. The ratio converts the distance between spot price and recent-holder cost basis into a normalized profit/loss reading, while STH Realized Price keeps the break-even level in USD.

Supply in Profit and Supply in Loss classify coins by whether market price is above or below their individual cost basis. STH Realized Price gives one weighted average of those cost bases across the recent-holder cohort.

BTC Price is the market price reference used to judge whether the recent-holder cost basis is above or below spot. STH Realized Price supplies the cohort-level break-even line; BTC Price supplies the current clearing price.

Methodology Note#

CoreCharts uses a soft transition around the 155-day STH/LTH boundary. Coins do not move from full STH weight to full LTH weight in one step.

For each coin, STH and LTH weights are complementary. BTC receiving less STH weight receives more LTH weight, preserving total supply across the two holder groups.

STH Realized Price records the cost basis assigned after an on-chain spend. Off-chain intent is not observable from the UTXO record alone.

Historical Background#

Short-Term Holder and Long-Term Holder realized price belong to the realized-cap family of Bitcoin on-chain metrics. The underlying realized price concept values coins at the price when they last moved on-chain, then converts that realized value into an average cost basis.

The 155-day boundary became common in on-chain analysis as a practical split between recently active supply and older supply. Hard-threshold versions classify each coin on one side of the boundary, while soft-threshold versions reduce discontinuities around the cutoff.

CoreCharts uses the soft 155-day split for STH Realized Price to avoid abrupt cohort changes when large coin volumes age across the boundary on the same date.